The Future of Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

We present a global Artificial Intelligence (AI) conceptual framework,
operationalization, and forecast to the year 2100. A series of AI indices were developed
within the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment platform, a quantitative
macro-level system that produces dynamic forecasts for 186 countries. IFs models
extensively interconnected aspects of global human development, including: agriculture,
economics, demographics, energy, infrastructure, environment, water, governance,
health, education, finance, technology, and international politics. We conceptualize
AI in three categories: narrow AI, general artificial intelligence (AGI), and
superintelligence. Today’s AI consists of six basic and narrow AI technologies:
computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, the Internet of Things
(IoT), robotics, and reasoning. As an index score for all approaches 10, we forecast
AGI technology to become available, representing it with a machine IQ index score,
roughly analogous to human IQ scores. The emergence of AGI is constrained by the
rate of improvement in and development of machine reasoning and associated
technologies. When machine IQ scores approach superhuman levels, we forecast the
emergence of superintelligent AI. The current path forecast estimates that AGI could
appear between 2040 and 2050. Superintelligent AI is forecast to be developed close
to the end of the current century. We frame the current path with faster and slower
scenarios of development and facilitate analysis of alternative scenarios. Future work
can assess the complex impacts of AI development on human society, including
economic productivity, labor, international trade, and energy systems.